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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, October 2, 2022

SPC Oct 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and wind-producing storms may occur from eastern Utah northeast into the northern High Plains during the afternoon into early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper low will gradually drift from the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains while an upper ridge persists across the Midwest and a mid-level trough meanders along the Eastern Seaboard today. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Mississippi Valley into New England and expand southward through the day, promoting large-scale subsidence and suppressing organized thunderstorm potential. However, adequate deep-layer ascent and buoyancy should accompany the western trough across the Interior West towards the High Plains, with isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms expected through the day, and a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out by afternoon. ...Four Corners Region to the Northern High Plains... A mid-level dry slot will encourage a corridor of clearing clouds and associated diurnal heating from portions of eastern UT to the northern High Plains by afternoon, encouraging surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F amid upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints. 7+ C/km low to mid-level lapse rates should develop atop the aforementioned surface airmass given boundary-layer mixing, with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. Though not overly strong, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear may materialize and overlap the narrow corridor of instability as a belt of 40 kt 500 mb flow pivots around the upper low and overspreads the Intermountain West. Point forecast soundings depict modestly curved low-level hodographs, with the hodograph above 3 km elongating. As such, a mix of multicells and short linear segments will be the main modes of convection, though a few transient supercells are possible, mainly during the afternoon. The steep lapse rates suggest that a couple of the stronger cellular storms may briefly produce severe hail while clustering storms/line segments may support a couple of severe gusts, particularly wherever cold pool mergers/upscale growth can occur. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 10/02/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC