SPC Oct 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms across parts of the Four Corners today. The severe threat should remain limited across the rest of the Continental U.S. ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander across the Intermountain West today as ridging aloft persists across the central/southern Plains. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper low, promoting locally stronger deep-layer ascent to foster thunderstorm development. The latest guidance consensus suggests that one embedded impulse will impinge on the High Plains, supporting scattered thunderstorms producing small hail and gusty winds. A second impulse may briefly support isolated but robust thunderstorm development across the Four Corners region, and a couple of severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, the remnants of Ian will drift northward and open up as a mid-level trough while traversing the Eastern Seaboard through the period. Buoyancy should remain scant within the warm-air advection zone on the eastern fringes of Ian's remnants, limiting the severe threat, though lightning flashes are still possible. ...Portions of the Four Corners Region... Current night time RGB composite satellite data shows clouds departing the Four Corners area, with guidance consensus supporting a continued clearing trend into the early afternoon hours. Adequate surface heating will support temperatures rising into the 70s F, with dewpoints reaching the upper 40s F. With continued boundary-layer mixing, surface-500 mb lapse rates should steepen to about 8 C/km, contributing to 700-1200 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Weak southerly low-level winds overspread by 30+ kt westerly mid-level flow should contribute to modestly elongated, straight hodographs, supportive of multicells and perhaps transient supercell structures. Given the aforementioned lapse rates, a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal probabilities. ..Squitieri/Thornton.. 10/01/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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