SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Risk for damaging winds and brief tornadoes will increase late
Monday night across the Florida Keys.
...FL Keys...
Tropical Storm Ian has progressed to near 17N/81W as of late this
evening and is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane by the
end of the day1 period as it tracks across the western tip of Cuba.
This evolution is expected to result in strengthening wind fields
across the southeastern Gulf Basin, including the FL Keys late.
Forecast soundings for EYW exhibit ample buoyancy for robust
updrafts within a sheared environment that will support organized
rotating updrafts, as tropical air mass already resides across this
region. Supercell structures are expected to materialize within the
outer bands which should encroach on the Keys primarily after
midnight.
...Northeastern US...
Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to track into southern OH by the
start of the day1 period, then progress to the southern New England
Coast by 27/00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures (500mb temperatures CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SZ0L6v
