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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, September 3, 2022

SPC Sep 3, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the Desert Southwest, the southern Great Plains, and the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. Storms have started to develop, with some stronger cores within the Marginal outlook area across the Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South region. Instability continues to increase and additional storms are expected to develop within this Marginal risk area. For additional details, see MCD 1760. One isolated storm has developed in west-central Oklahoma. The cumulus field in this region, ahead of a weak front, suggests additional storms may develop in the next 1 to 2 hours. Moderate instability, may prove sufficient for a few strong to severe wind gusts with any stronger updraft/downdraft pairs. A 84 mph wind gust was measured below a collapsing storm core near Wolfforth, TX. Radar presentation suggests this was likely a small scale microburst which caused this wind gust. Additional storms are forming within this environment which may suggest additional strong wind gusts are possible, but the KLBB WSR-88D shows outflow boundaries have already extended far beyond the ongoing thunderstorms which casts doubt on the development of additional strong updrafts in this region. Some storms have developed along a front from northern Illinois into central Michigan. These storms should remain mostly sub-severe and expect any severe threat to be brief and isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022/ ...Interior Southern CA to northwest AZ... Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated over interior southern CA and northwest AZ along the northern edge of a deep moisture plume. Although the stronger midlevel flow will reside farther south near the international border, slightly stronger mid-level easterly flow averaging 25 kts and steep low-level lapse rates will result in an environment conducive for isolated strong/severe wind gusts. ...Northern/west-central OK to far southern KS... Increasing frontal convergence and minimal CINH will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by early evening along a slow-moving surface front. RAP/NAM forecast soundings depict a deep/well-mixed atmosphere and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. Within this environment, an isolated stronger storm will be capable of producing strong/potentially severe gusts. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH River Valleys... An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon/early evening east of a weak midlevel trough. Despite poor lapse rates, a very moist environment and modestly enhanced mid-level flow (20-25 kts) may yield a few storms capable of wet microbursts, especially where breaks in cloud cover result in locally greater buoyancy. Storms should diminish in intensity as the evening progresses. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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