SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Sat Sep 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Monday through Monday night.
...Discussion...
Within the westerlies, models indicate that significant lower/mid
tropospheric cyclogenesis is possible, but well to the north of the
international border, across the Canadian Northwest Territories
during this period. Another vigorous, but more compact,
perturbation may evolve over the northeastern Pacific by late Monday
night.
Across much of the U.S., models indicate little change to the
large-scale flow from Sunday into Monday. The center of a broad
mid-level high may become a bit more prominent once again across the
Great Basin. Weak mid-level troughing accompanied by more
substantive lower/mid tropospheric drying may shift south of the St.
Lawrence Valley and lower Great Lakes region. Otherwise, seasonably
moist conditions likely will persist along, south and east of a
lingering weak positively tilted trough axis trailing
west-southwestward across the Ohio through lower Mississippi Valleys
and southeast Texas. This may again provide support for scattered
to numerous mainly afternoon into early evening thunderstorms on
Monday. However, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain
generally negligible.
..Kerr.. 09/03/2022
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