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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, September 4, 2022

SPC Sep 4, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH/NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts remain possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Southwest, and far southeast Oklahoma into north/northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across far southeast OK into north/northwest TX based on ongoing convection and related outflow boundaries. Occasional strong to severe wind gusts should continue to be the main threat with thunderstorms that move slowly southward across this area through the rest of the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 1763 for more details on the near-term severe threat for this region. No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of western AZ into southern NV and interior southern CA. ..Gleason.. 09/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022/ ...Desert Southwest... With a moist air mass remaining across the region, strong boundary layer heating and orographic influences will again yield isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon into evening. This will include a corridor from northwest Arizona, far southern Nevada into interior southern California. A belt of moderately strong easterly winds will persist on the southern periphery of the Great Basin-centered upper ridge, which will support a west-southwestward movement of some potentially semi-organized storms. A well-mixed boundary layer will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts from the late afternoon into early/mid-evening. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North Texas... A southward-sagging front along with different heating/outflow will focus renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon. With 15-25 kt mid-level north/northwesterly winds, weakly organized clusters may congeal and spread south in north Texas with a threat for locally strong to severe wind gusts given surface temperatures in the 90s F. Storms will weaken towards/after sunset as the boundary layer cools and MLCIN increases. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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