SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH/NORTHWEST
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts remain possible this afternoon and early
evening over parts of the Southwest, and far southeast Oklahoma into
north/northwest Texas.
...20Z Update...
Adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across far southeast
OK into north/northwest TX based on ongoing convection and related
outflow boundaries. Occasional strong to severe wind gusts should
continue to be the main threat with thunderstorms that move slowly
southward across this area through the rest of the afternoon. See
Mesoscale Discussion 1763 for more details on the near-term severe
threat for this region.
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of
western AZ into southern NV and interior southern CA.
..Gleason.. 09/04/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022/
...Desert Southwest...
With a moist air mass remaining across the region, strong boundary
layer heating and orographic influences will again yield isolated
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into evening. This will
include a corridor from northwest Arizona, far southern Nevada into
interior southern California. A belt of moderately strong easterly
winds will persist on the southern periphery of the Great
Basin-centered upper ridge, which will support a west-southwestward
movement of some potentially semi-organized storms. A well-mixed
boundary layer will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts
from the late afternoon into early/mid-evening.
...Southeast Oklahoma and North Texas...
A southward-sagging front along with different heating/outflow will
focus renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon. With 15-25 kt
mid-level north/northwesterly winds, weakly organized clusters may
congeal and spread south in north Texas with a threat for locally
strong to severe wind gusts given surface temperatures in the 90s F.
Storms will weaken towards/after sunset as the boundary layer cools
and MLCIN increases.
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