SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SONORAN AND MOJAVE DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over
portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
...Sonoran and Mojave Deserts through late evening...
A broken linear cluster of storms this evening will continue
west-southwest into eastern portions of the Mojave desert and into
the Sonoran desert. Very steep lapse rates were sampled on the Las
Vegas and Tucson raobs and around 30-kt east-northeasterly flow is
on the Phoenix VAD. Severe gusts with the stronger cores will
remain possible into the late evening as storms move into richer
low-level moisture in the lower CO River Valley.
...KS northeastward into the WI vicinity...
Early evening water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over
northern Ontario with an associated disturbance moving through the
base of the larger-scale trough. The glancing influence of this
impulse coupled with a surface front may continue to support storms
and the possibility for a strong to locally severe storm from
northern IA into WI and the Upper Peninsula of MI for the next few
hours. A cluster of strong to severe storms will likely continue
moving southward across western KS through the mid-late evening.
Steep lapse rates will potentially invigorate a few storms capable
of isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginal hail. Less clear and
more uncertain in terms of whether storms will initiate is over NE
into western/central IA. The 00z Omaha raob showed minimal
convective inhibition, so despite little in the way of forcing for
ascent, a low possibility for a strong to severe storm remains for
another few hours.
..Smith.. 09/03/2022
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