SPC Sep 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to move only slowly eastward on Monday, while a weak upper ridge will persist over the Southwest. A cold front is forecast to reach the Gulf and Carolina Coasts by late afternoon/early evening, as a surface ridge settles into the Plains and mid-MS Valley. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along the front before it moves offshore. Widely scattered thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of northern New England, though instability appears too weak to support a severe threat. ...South FL Peninsula/FL Keys... Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to intensify into a hurricane and approach western Cuba by late Monday night/Tuesday morning (refer to NHC forecasts and advisories for more information on Ian). It is possible that outer rain bands associated with Ian will begin to affect the FL Keys and far southern FL Peninsula before the end of the period, but uncertainty regarding the strength of low-level flow/shear prior to 12Z Tuesday precludes the introduction of tornado probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/25/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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