SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe-thunderstorm gusts/hail remain possible this evening
across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains.
...01z Update...
Scattered convection has developed ahead of a weak upper trough from
the TX South Plains, across western KS/central NE into southeast SD.
This activity has evolved within a modest zone of buoyancy where
afternoon heating enhanced low-level lapse rates. While mid-
high-level flow are decidedly weak, robust convection has at times
generated hail in excess of 1 inch along with 50+kt gusts,
especially from southwest KS into the TX South Plains. 00z soundings
from this region support a narrow corridor of modest instability,
primarily along/just east of the main lee surface trough. Over the
next few hours, LLJ is forecast to increase across the
southern/central Plains, ultimately focusing across the TX Panhandle
into central KS by daybreak. This nocturnal influence may allow
convection to linger well into the overnight hours, although updraft
intensities should begin to wane as the boundary layer cools.
..Darrow.. 09/16/2022
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