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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, September 15, 2022

SPC Sep 15, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe-thunderstorm gusts are possible this afternoon/early evening across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains. ...Discussion... Ongoing outlook reasoning and areas continue to adequately reflect current expectations, regarding convective evolution/intensity through this evening and overnight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage from the central Plains to the southern High Plains, with local risk for strong/gusty winds with a couple of the strongest storms. A gust or two may also occur across portions of northern Nevada, where a deep mixed layer exists beneath developing convection. At this time, only minor tweaks to thunder lines appear necessary, with the remainder of the outlook appearing to be on track. ..Goss.. 09/15/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022/ ...Central and Southern Plains... A broad but weak upper trough will persist across the Rockies and western states today, with a shortwave trough apparent on WV approaching eastern CO/western KS. This will result in relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates over much of the central and southern Plains today, along with a corridor of around 1000 J/kg of afternoon MLCAPE. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions show multiple clusters of thunderstorms from west TX northward into parts of KS/NE/SD this afternoon. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level winds, which should limit the degree of convective organization. However, steep low-level lapse rates and merging outflows will lead to localized gusty winds in the strongest clusters. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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