SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe-thunderstorm gusts are possible this afternoon/early
evening across portions of the central Plains and southern High
Plains.
...Discussion...
Ongoing outlook reasoning and areas continue to adequately reflect
current expectations, regarding convective evolution/intensity
through this evening and overnight. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage from the central
Plains to the southern High Plains, with local risk for strong/gusty
winds with a couple of the strongest storms. A gust or two may also
occur across portions of northern Nevada, where a deep mixed layer
exists beneath developing convection.
At this time, only minor tweaks to thunder lines appear necessary,
with the remainder of the outlook appearing to be on track.
..Goss.. 09/15/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022/
...Central and Southern Plains...
A broad but weak upper trough will persist across the Rockies and
western states today, with a shortwave trough apparent on WV
approaching eastern CO/western KS. This will result in relatively
cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates
over much of the central and southern Plains today, along with a
corridor of around 1000 J/kg of afternoon MLCAPE. A consensus of
12z CAM solutions show multiple clusters of thunderstorms from west
TX northward into parts of KS/NE/SD this afternoon. Forecast
soundings show rather weak mid-level winds, which should limit the
degree of convective organization. However, steep low-level lapse
rates and merging outflows will lead to localized gusty winds in the
strongest clusters.
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