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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, September 16, 2022

SPC Sep 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains on Friday. ...Central Plains... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level short-wave trough over NV, advancing east in line with latest model guidance. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across southern NV into western CO by 18z, then into NE during the late evening. This feature should encourage a weak surface lee low to back into northeast CO by peak heating, then to be dislodged into NE/northern KS where weakening is expected by 17/12z. Strong boundary-layer heating will once again be noted along the lee trough from west TX into southwestern NE and southeast WY. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures may be breached by 21-22z, and large-scale support ahead of the aforementioned short wave appears favorably timed for scattered robust convection. NAM 22z sounding for OGA exhibits surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt with steep surface-3km lapse rates. It appears supercells will evolve by late afternoon across the central High Plains where SBCAPE will likely be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. While initial activity should evolve near the lee trough, a synoptic front draped along the SD/NE border may focus convection as it oscillates across this region through the end of the period. Large hail can be expected with these storms, along with possible severe gusts. Scattered strong/severe convection should spread into central NE by late evening. Subsequent movement should allow this activity to spread toward the mid MO River Valley late as LLJ veers into this portion of the central US. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 09/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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