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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, September 15, 2022

SPC Sep 15, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across the central Plains Thursday. ...Central Plains... Upper ridge currently located over the MS Valley will shift east later Thursday. This will allow a weak trough to advance into the High Plains by late afternoon, stretching from eastern MT-northeast CO-western OK. This flow regime will ensure lee surface troughing across the Plains. The primary corridor of low-level convergence is expected to focus from the TX Panhandle into central NE, arcing into western MN where a weak surface low is expected by 16/12z. Weak large-scale support is anticipated ahead of the mid-level trough. Nonetheless, latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in potential convective development by late afternoon, as inhibition weakens and convective temperatures are breached along the aforementioned zone of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest isolated-scattered convection should evolve by 21z, but weak deep-layer flow and shear are potentially problematic for organized, longer lived updrafts. Forecast thermodynamic environment and strength of the upper trough suggest gusts will be the primary concern with convection during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 09/15/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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