SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts
are possible across the central Plains Thursday.
...Central Plains...
Upper ridge currently located over the MS Valley will shift east
later Thursday. This will allow a weak trough to advance into the
High Plains by late afternoon, stretching from eastern MT-northeast
CO-western OK. This flow regime will ensure lee surface troughing
across the Plains. The primary corridor of low-level convergence is
expected to focus from the TX Panhandle into central NE, arcing into
western MN where a weak surface low is expected by 16/12z. Weak
large-scale support is anticipated ahead of the mid-level trough.
Nonetheless, latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer
heating will prove instrumental in potential convective development
by late afternoon, as inhibition weakens and convective temperatures
are breached along the aforementioned zone of low-level convergence.
Forecast soundings suggest isolated-scattered convection should
evolve by 21z, but weak deep-layer flow and shear are potentially
problematic for organized, longer lived updrafts. Forecast
thermodynamic environment and strength of the upper trough suggest
gusts will be the primary concern with convection during the late
afternoon/evening hours.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 09/15/2022
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