SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds remain possible this evening over portions of the
southern High Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough
advancing east across NM into the southern High Plains. While
deep-layer flow is not particularly noteworthy, isolated robust
convection has developed within a steep lapse rate environment near
the NM/TX border. Latest diagnostic data suggests modest instability
persists across this region with roughly 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. 00z
sounding from AMA exhibited around 1000 J/kg but surface-6km bulk
shear was only 15kt. Large-scale support ahead of the short wave is
expected to aid some longevity of this activity, at least through
late evening as adequate buoyancy will continue to support
slow-moving convection for several hours. Gusty winds, and
marginally severe hail remain possible.
..Darrow.. 09/15/2022
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