SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible this
afternoon and evening over portions of the southern High Plains.
...20z update...
Showers and thunderstorms developing across the southern High Plains
should continue to strengthen and grow in coverage through this
afternoon. Current visible imagery and recent high-res guidance show
additional storms evolving across the TX Panhandle and off of the
higher terrain in eastern NM and southeastern CO later this evening.
High LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will continue
to favor strong downdrafts with an isolated risk for severe wind
gusts. However, greater storm organization potential should continue
to be hampered by weak vertical shear and modest buoyancy. The
previous outlooks remains on track with no changes to the Marginal
Risk area, and only minor adjustments made to the General Thunder
area.
..Lyons/Jewell.. 09/14/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022/
...Southern High Plains...
A weak/broad trough is present today over the western US, with weak
but cyclonic flow across the southern High Plains. Strong heating
over the higher terrain of eastern NM will lead to scattered
thunderstorms by late afternoon, spreading slowly eastward into west
TX. Winds aloft are rather weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and
CAM solutions of growing clusters of storms may result in localized
gusty/damaging winds for a few hours this evening.
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