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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

SPC Sep 14, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening over portions of the southern High Plains. ...20z update... Showers and thunderstorms developing across the southern High Plains should continue to strengthen and grow in coverage through this afternoon. Current visible imagery and recent high-res guidance show additional storms evolving across the TX Panhandle and off of the higher terrain in eastern NM and southeastern CO later this evening. High LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will continue to favor strong downdrafts with an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. However, greater storm organization potential should continue to be hampered by weak vertical shear and modest buoyancy. The previous outlooks remains on track with no changes to the Marginal Risk area, and only minor adjustments made to the General Thunder area. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 09/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022/ ...Southern High Plains... A weak/broad trough is present today over the western US, with weak but cyclonic flow across the southern High Plains. Strong heating over the higher terrain of eastern NM will lead to scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon, spreading slowly eastward into west TX. Winds aloft are rather weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and CAM solutions of growing clusters of storms may result in localized gusty/damaging winds for a few hours this evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC