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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, September 14, 2022

SPC Sep 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from western Nebraska into parts of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS today. Multiple embedded vorticity maxima within the longwave trough are forecast to emerge over the Great Plains through the period, as a downstream upper ridge shifts slowly eastward toward the lower/mid-MS Valley. A surface cyclone is forecast to move slowly eastward from Montana into the Dakotas, with a lee trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains, and a warm front extending eastward toward the eastern Dakotas and central/northern MN. ...Parts of the central/northern Plains... Rather strong diurnal heating is expected across parts of the central/northern Plains, along/east of the lee trough and along/south of the warm front. Modest moisture return will support the development of weak to moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range by late afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the lee trough, and also farther east from north-central NE into central/eastern SD, along the leading edge of deeper returning moisture. While deep-layer shear will likely remain relatively weak, inverted-v profiles and increasing low-level flow will support a threat of isolated severe/damaging gusts, even if convection remains relatively disorganized. Elevated convection may expand in coverage later tonight across parts of ND/MN. Steep midlevel lapse rates could support an isolated hail threat with this activity, but confidence in this scenario is too low to include late-period hail probabilities at this time. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near/east of the lee trough into the southern High Plains. Isolated strong gusts will be possible with these storms, but buoyancy and low-level flow are expected to be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, and the threat of severe gusts appears too low to extend wind probabilities into the region at this time. ..Dean/Weinman.. 09/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)