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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, September 10, 2022

SPC Sep 10, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley, Lower Colorado River Valley, and the Florida Big Bend region Sunday morning into early Monday morning. Severe thunderstorm potential is low. ...Mid MS Valley into the Middle OH Valley... Upper troughing is forecast to extend along the MS Valley early Sunday morning, with an embedded shortwave trough extended from the Upper Midwest into the Lower MO Valley. This embedded shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the Mid MS Valley while maturing into a closed circulation. An associated surface low will progress eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave throughout the first half of the period, before the system slows, matures, and becomes more vertically stacked. Ample low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the surface low and attendant front, with dewpoints likely in the mid to upper 60s. However, widespread cloud cover will temper heating and the coldest mid-level temperatures will remain west of the surface cold front, limiting the buoyancy. Moderate mid-level flow will accompany the deepening upper low, but it too will remain west of the surface cold front. As a result, modest buoyancy and shear are expected to limit storm severity. ...Southern CA into AZ... The remnants of Tropical Storm Kay are expected to gradually move eastward towards southern CA on Sunday. This will contribute to increased low- and mid-level moisture across southern CA and the Southwest, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated across the region. The highest thunderstorm coverage is currently expected across the higher terrain of AZ and west-central NM. A few stronger storms are possible, particularly if any storms can persist over the lower deserts where steep low-level lapse rates will exist. Even so, warm temperatures aloft will limit buoyancy and vertical shear will remain weak, tempering the overall severe potential. ...FL Big Bend and vicinity... A weakening shortwave trough is forecast to be centered over the Lower MS Valley early Sunday morning. Ascent attendant to the shortwave combined with ample low-level moisture is expected to support at least scattered thunderstorms Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Additionally, modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected between this shortwave and subtropical ridging off the Southeast coast. A strong storm or two is possible within this environment, but coverage is currently expected to be too low to merit probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 09/10/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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