SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Fri Sep 09 2022
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
One or two marginally severe storms may occur across parts of the
Southeast and Upper Great Lakes tonight.
...01z Update...
Upper trough is advancing slowly east across the northern Plains
early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests leading edge
of large-scale ascent appears to be correlated with a band of weak
post-frontal elevated convection from northern NE-southern
MN-western UP of MI. This activity trails the surface cold front by
roughly 30-50 miles, and has struggled to exhibit any appreciable
intensity over the last few hours. 00z observed and forecast
soundings do not lend appreciable confidence in severe hail with
this convection. Even so, will maintain a small corridor of low
probabilities for the possibility of marginally severe hail across
portions of the upper Great Lakes.
Weak baroclinic zone persists across northern FL to just south of
SAV. Numerous showers/thunderstorms persist along this warm
advection corridor where shear appears adequate for the continuation
of weak storm organization.
..Darrow.. 09/10/2022
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