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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, September 10, 2022

SPC Sep 10, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe convective gusts, or a brief tornado, may occur over parts of the southeast states, and the desert southwest. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk for wind/tornado has been removed from the west coast of Florida where areas of heavy rain earlier in the day has likely stabilized the boundary-layer. Otherwise, the risk remains from east-central FL northward into parts of GA/SC/NC where scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon in a moderately unstable but weakly sheared environment. The Marginal risk across parts of NV/CA is unchanged from the previous outlook. Very steep low-level lapse rates will promote strong outflow winds from isolated thunderstorms through early evening. ..Leitman.. 09/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022/ ...Southeast... A persistent upper low remains over LA today, with a plume of deep, moist southerly flow across much of the southeast states. Widespread showers and thunderstorms have been occurring this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity will spread inland this afternoon and affect much of FL/GA. Other more isolated storms will affect parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. Wind fields are modest, but ample moisture and localized enhancements to shear may result in locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCDs #1773 and #1774 for further small-scale details. ...NV/CA... A band of relatively strong easterly mid-level winds extends across northern AZ into southern NV today. Most 12z CAM guidance shows increasing thunderstorm activity along this corridor this afternoon. Forecast soundings show unusually high PWAT values, promoting a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The area of highest threat appears to extend from northern Death Valley into the deserts of southwest NV. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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