SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe convective gusts, or a brief tornado,
may occur over parts of the southeast states, and the desert
southwest.
...20z Update...
The Marginal risk for wind/tornado has been removed from the west
coast of Florida where areas of heavy rain earlier in the day has
likely stabilized the boundary-layer. Otherwise, the risk remains
from east-central FL northward into parts of GA/SC/NC where
scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon in a
moderately unstable but weakly sheared environment.
The Marginal risk across parts of NV/CA is unchanged from the
previous outlook. Very steep low-level lapse rates will promote
strong outflow winds from isolated thunderstorms through early
evening.
..Leitman.. 09/10/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022/
...Southeast...
A persistent upper low remains over LA today, with a plume of deep,
moist southerly flow across much of the southeast states.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have been occurring this
morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity will spread
inland this afternoon and affect much of FL/GA. Other more isolated
storms will affect parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. Wind
fields are modest, but ample moisture and localized enhancements to
shear may result in locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado
or two. Refer to MCDs #1773 and #1774 for further small-scale
details.
...NV/CA...
A band of relatively strong easterly mid-level winds extends across
northern AZ into southern NV today. Most 12z CAM guidance shows
increasing thunderstorm activity along this corridor this afternoon.
Forecast soundings show unusually high PWAT values, promoting a risk
of gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The area of
highest threat appears to extend from northern Death Valley into the
deserts of southwest NV.
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