SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook. A few strong storms will
be possible along the periphery of extensive ongoing convection
across the southern Plains, and also near/south of ongoing storms
across GA/SC, wherever convective overturning has not occurred and
stronger heating/destabilization is evident. While isolated
downburst winds cannot be ruled out across these areas, weak
deep-layer shear will tend to limit the organized
severe-thunderstorm risk.
..Dean.. 09/01/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022/
...Synopsis...
Tropical moisture, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s
and PW values greater than 2 inches, will persist across the
Southeast. Primarily diurnal convection will be focused across
south GA/north FL by a weak midlevel low and local sea
breeze/differential heating zones. Farther west into the southern
Plains, similar moisture exists with embedded/weak midlevel troughs
over southwest OK and northern Mexico. The southwest OK wave will
move slowly east-northeastward through tonight, in response to an
upstream trough digging south-southeastward over KS. Embedded
thunderstorms are expected across central OK with the ejecting wave,
but lightning may be more prevalent around the
northern-eastern-southern periphery of the midlevel trough, with
diurnal convection in the zones of differential heating on the edge
of the thicker clouds.
Otherwise, a larger-scale midlevel trough will move
east-southeastward over AB/SK/MB, as a smaller-scale lead wave
ejects generally eastward over MT today. Low-level moisture will be
limited across the northern Plains, with only a small chance for
thunderstorms with the ejecting shortwave trough and a cold front
this evening into tonight.
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