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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, September 1, 2022

SPC Sep 1, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. A few strong storms will be possible along the periphery of extensive ongoing convection across the southern Plains, and also near/south of ongoing storms across GA/SC, wherever convective overturning has not occurred and stronger heating/destabilization is evident. While isolated downburst winds cannot be ruled out across these areas, weak deep-layer shear will tend to limit the organized severe-thunderstorm risk. ..Dean.. 09/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... Tropical moisture, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and PW values greater than 2 inches, will persist across the Southeast. Primarily diurnal convection will be focused across south GA/north FL by a weak midlevel low and local sea breeze/differential heating zones. Farther west into the southern Plains, similar moisture exists with embedded/weak midlevel troughs over southwest OK and northern Mexico. The southwest OK wave will move slowly east-northeastward through tonight, in response to an upstream trough digging south-southeastward over KS. Embedded thunderstorms are expected across central OK with the ejecting wave, but lightning may be more prevalent around the northern-eastern-southern periphery of the midlevel trough, with diurnal convection in the zones of differential heating on the edge of the thicker clouds. Otherwise, a larger-scale midlevel trough will move east-southeastward over AB/SK/MB, as a smaller-scale lead wave ejects generally eastward over MT today. Low-level moisture will be limited across the northern Plains, with only a small chance for thunderstorms with the ejecting shortwave trough and a cold front this evening into tonight. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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