SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Sep 01 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A weak mean mid/upper level trough will persist from the Midwest
toward the Northeast on Saturday. Stronger westerly deep-layer flow
will remain over Ontario and Quebec, with vertical shear becoming
quite weak over the central/eastern CONUS. A strong upper
anticyclone will remain over the Great Basin/southwestern states,
while a compact shortwave trough migrates across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across the southern
Plains into the MS/OH Valley and Southeast. A cold front will extend
from northern Lower MI into northwest OK Saturday morning and sag
slowly east/southeast through the period. Pockets of moderate to
strong destabilization are possible across the warm sector. However,
weak large-scale ascent and poor vertical shear will limit organized
severe-thunderstorm potential. Sporadic strong gusts aided by
water-loaded downdrafts could occur across parts of the southern
Plains to the OH/TN Valley vicinities, but overall
severe-thunderstorm potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 09/01/2022
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