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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, August 3, 2022

SPC Aug 3, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM CENTRAL MO TO SOUTHERN LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are most probable from Lower Michigan into the Mid Mississippi Valley, with at least isolated severe possibly extending southwestward across Missouri and into eastern Kansas. ...Mid MS Valley to Lower Mi through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern MN across Lake Superior and Upper MI, as other smaller-scale perturbations likewise move eastward from SD/NE toward northern IL/Lower MI by this evening. A surface cold front will translate southeastward across the upper MS Valley and central Plains, and the front will be preceded by outflow from overnight convection across WI/northern Lower MI, and related differential heating zones. Away from lingering debris cloudiness, strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to a corridor of strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) from the mid MS Valley into Lower MI. Midlevel westerly flow will be stronger over Lower MI (30-40 kt), and will tend to weaken with southwest extent toward MO. Isolated strong storms will be possible this morning through midday from IA to southern WI, near the leading edge of the thicker cloud band and outflow boundaries. The primary severe threat is expected to materialize this afternoon along the lingering outflow/differential heating zone from northern MO across northern IL to central/southern Lower MI. A mix of multicell clusters and line segments is expected to be the primary convective mode, with large buoyancy and DCAPE in excess of 1200 J/kg supporting the threat for damaging gusts. The severe threat is expected to diminish by late evening from southeast Lower MI into IN, but strong storms may linger into the overnight hours while developing southward into the richer moisture/larger buoyancy toward southeast MO. ...Southeast AZ this afternoon/evening... Despite weakening of an overnight MCS across Sonora, other convection persists this morning across southeast AZ. Gradual clearing of clouds is expected by afternoon, but the rate of clearing will control surface heating/destabilization and the potential for additional afternoon storms over the higher terrain of southeast AZ. East to east-southeasterly midlevel flow south of the midlevel ridge will steer convection westward toward the lower deserts, though lingering convective inhibition over the lower deserts casts doubt on how far west the storms can persist. Assuming sufficient duration of clearing in the wake of the morning clouds/convection, inverted-v profiles and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg will support isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Savannah River Valley this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by early-mid afternoon in association with a differential heating zone, local sea breeze circulations, and a lingering front. Thermodynamic profiles will be sufficient for a few strong/damaging downbursts, with convection expected to be focused near the northeast edge of the thicker clouds and very moist profiles associated with a weak midlevel trough over GA. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 08/03/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)