SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may affects parts of the northern
Plains to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
A band of moderate midlevel southwesterlies will stretch from the
northern Rockies across the Dakotas and MN as a shortwave trough
moves east across MT late in the period. At the surface, high
pressure will be centered over southern MB into western ON, with a
front extending from a weak low in southern NE northeastward into IA
and southern MN by late afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s will be
common near this front, resulting in moderate instability. This
boundary will push north as a warm front over parts of MN and WI
Saturday night, as 850 mb winds increase to 30 kt. Wind profiles
will favor clusters of storms with locally strong winds or
short-lived hail cores as deep-shear will be largely parallel to the
front. Convection may be ongoing relatively early north of the
boundary, becoming stronger into the diurnal heating maximum and
persisting during the evening as the low-level jet increases.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2022
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