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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, August 3, 2022

SPC Aug 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move east across SK, MB and ON, with the associated midlevel speed max grazing northern portions of ND and MN with 40 kt flow into SD. A cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas, likely reaching northern NE during the evening. A narrow plume of mid 50s to 60s F dewpoints will meet the front over eastern ND into SD, as heating contributes to between 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Hot temperatures as well as convergence along the front should lead to afternoon storms, possibly from southeast ND into central and eastern SD by evening. A substantial low-level jet will aid low-level warming and boundary-layer mixing, and should allow for east/southeastward moving storms. At least isolated severe gusts will be possible, along with marginal hail. Models spreads are currently high regarding low-level moisture and thus severe magnitude. ..Jewell.. 08/03/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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