SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail will be
possible on Friday across parts of the northern Plains.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move east across SK, MB and ON,
with the associated midlevel speed max grazing northern portions of
ND and MN with 40 kt flow into SD. A cold front will move
southeastward across the Dakotas, likely reaching northern NE during
the evening. A narrow plume of mid 50s to 60s F dewpoints will meet
the front over eastern ND into SD, as heating contributes to between
1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE.
Hot temperatures as well as convergence along the front should lead
to afternoon storms, possibly from southeast ND into central and
eastern SD by evening. A substantial low-level jet will aid
low-level warming and boundary-layer mixing, and should allow for
east/southeastward moving storms. At least isolated severe gusts
will be possible, along with marginal hail. Models spreads are
currently high regarding low-level moisture and thus severe
magnitude.
..Jewell.. 08/03/2022
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