SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginal hail is possible over the northern High Plains,
while a few strong gusts remain possible over southern Arizona. A
strong storm or two remains possible over northern Texas early this
evening.
...Northern High Plains...
A few cells are currently moving south/southeastward along the MT/ND
border, beneath northwest flow aloft and near the surface trough.
The 00Z BIS sounding shows steep lapse rates and modest northwest
flow aloft, and this may sustain a severe cell or two given
favorable storm-relative inflow. Storms should dissipate as
convective inhibition increases this evening, but isolated wind or
hail is possible until then.
...Southern Arizona...
Numerous small storms persist across the area, with a few stronger
cores from east through south of the Phoenix metro. The 00Z TUS
sounding indicates tall CAPE profiles with substantial moisture
(PWAT over 1.6"), and very weak winds aloft. Meanwhile, instability
remains maximized over southwest AZ, and an outflow boundary will
continue to push south. As such, isolated damaging gusts remain
possible for a few hours until the boundary layer cools or air mass
is overturned.
...Northern and eastern Texas...
Scattered storms persist along the east-west oriented boundary, with
some becoming briefly strong. Given lack of shear on 00Z FWD
sounding, any severe threat is expected to remain localized, and
will likely begin to wane between 01-02Z as this activity is
diurnally driven.
..Jewell.. 08/18/2022
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