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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, August 18, 2022

SPC Aug 18, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginal hail is possible over the northern High Plains, while a few strong gusts remain possible over southern Arizona. A strong storm or two remains possible over northern Texas early this evening. ...Northern High Plains... A few cells are currently moving south/southeastward along the MT/ND border, beneath northwest flow aloft and near the surface trough. The 00Z BIS sounding shows steep lapse rates and modest northwest flow aloft, and this may sustain a severe cell or two given favorable storm-relative inflow. Storms should dissipate as convective inhibition increases this evening, but isolated wind or hail is possible until then. ...Southern Arizona... Numerous small storms persist across the area, with a few stronger cores from east through south of the Phoenix metro. The 00Z TUS sounding indicates tall CAPE profiles with substantial moisture (PWAT over 1.6"), and very weak winds aloft. Meanwhile, instability remains maximized over southwest AZ, and an outflow boundary will continue to push south. As such, isolated damaging gusts remain possible for a few hours until the boundary layer cools or air mass is overturned. ...Northern and eastern Texas... Scattered storms persist along the east-west oriented boundary, with some becoming briefly strong. Given lack of shear on 00Z FWD sounding, any severe threat is expected to remain localized, and will likely begin to wane between 01-02Z as this activity is diurnally driven. ..Jewell.. 08/18/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC