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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

SPC Aug 17, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTH FL...SOUTHERN AZ...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds will be possible through this evening from east Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley to north Florida, southern Arizona, and the western Dakotas. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal risk area across Florida based on latest convective trends. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains unchanged and on track. See discussion below for more forecast details. ..Leitman.. 08/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022/ ...Lower MS Valley to north FL this afternoon/evening... A remnant MCV will move east-southeastward from AR to MS/AL this afternoon, roughly along and just north of an outflow-reinforced front from the AR/LA border across central MS to southern AL. Strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints well into the 70s will boost MLCAPE to near 3000 J/kg this afternoon along and south of the front/outflow, and additional thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon. The surface boundaries that will focus storm initiation will lie along the southwest fringe of the 20-30 kt midlevel flow, which will support multicell clusters. Precipitation loading with the strong buoyancy, in combination with DCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, will support isolated wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, isolated strong storms will also be possible across north FL, primarily with sea breeze and outflow interactions. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... To the west of a remnant tropical low over northern Mexico, midlevel east-northeast flow will strengthen some through this evening over southern AZ. This will favor convective clusters moving southwestward from the higher terrain to the lower deserts, where strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to moderate buoyancy and weakening convective inhibition. Typical steep low-level lapse rates and substantial precipitation loading will favor hybrid microbursts capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow winds. ...Western Dakotas this afternoon/evening... Some convection is ongoing late this morning over the northern High Plains, in advance of a weak midlevel trough moving over northeast MT. The convection is expected to increase some later this afternoon as it encounters a deeper mixed boundary layer, when there will be the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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