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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, August 18, 2022

SPC Aug 18, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the Midwest/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozarks. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozarks... A closed mid/upper-level cyclone over the Upper Midwest Saturday morning should evolve into a positively tilted trough as it moves slowly eastward across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and mid MS Valley through the period. A weak surface low associated with the upper trough should likewise move slowly eastward across IA and vicinity through Saturday evening. A cold front attendant to the surface low is forecast to progress east-southeastward across parts of the Midwest, mid MS Valley, and central/southern Plains. There is still some uncertainty with the placement and evolution of the cold front through the day, and with the quality of low-level moisture ahead of it. Depending on how much diurnal heating can occur across the warm sector, at least weak instability should develop in a fairly narrow corridor across parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Most guidance suggests a gradual uptick in convective coverage should occur along/ahead of the front late Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Even with mid-level winds remaining fairly muted, there should be enough deep-layer shear for marginal updraft organization. Low severe probabilities have been included where confidence is greatest in loosely organized thunderstorm clusters occurring, with the modest deep-layer shear likely keeping the overall severe threat isolated. ..Gleason.. 08/18/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)