SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the Midwest/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozarks.
...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozarks...
A closed mid/upper-level cyclone over the Upper Midwest Saturday
morning should evolve into a positively tilted trough as it moves
slowly eastward across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and mid MS Valley
through the period. A weak surface low associated with the upper
trough should likewise move slowly eastward across IA and vicinity
through Saturday evening. A cold front attendant to the surface low
is forecast to progress east-southeastward across parts of the
Midwest, mid MS Valley, and central/southern Plains.
There is still some uncertainty with the placement and evolution of
the cold front through the day, and with the quality of low-level
moisture ahead of it. Depending on how much diurnal heating can
occur across the warm sector, at least weak instability should
develop in a fairly narrow corridor across parts of the Midwest/mid
MS Valley and Ozarks. Most guidance suggests a gradual uptick in
convective coverage should occur along/ahead of the front late
Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Even with mid-level winds
remaining fairly muted, there should be enough deep-layer shear for
marginal updraft organization. Low severe probabilities have been
included where confidence is greatest in loosely organized
thunderstorm clusters occurring, with the modest deep-layer shear
likely keeping the overall severe threat isolated.
..Gleason.. 08/18/2022
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