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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, August 16, 2022

SPC Aug 16, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL ND...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon/evening for parts of the Ozarks, lower Mississippi Valley, southern High Plains, and northern Minnesota vicinity. ...North Dakota... The Marginal risk has been expanded westward into parts of central ND with the 20z update. Isolated thunderstorms have developed near a weak surface boundary oriented west to east/northeast from central ND into northwest MN. Visible satellite imagery has shown an expanding cumulus field near the boundary this afternoon. Vertical shear will remain modest, but MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and enhanced low-level shear along the boundary, coupled with steep low-level lapse rates, could support a few strong gusts with storms that develop through early evening. ...Southern High Plains to the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley... The ongoing outlook remains unchanged. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern High Plains to the Lower MS Valley through early evening. Reference MCDs 1686 and 1687 for more details regarding short term severe potential. ..Leitman.. 08/16/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/ ...Ozarks/lower MS Valley/southern Plains through this evening... A diffuse MCV over northern MO will move southeastward today, within a band of 30-40 kt midlevel flow (per regional VWPs). Elevated convection has persisted from overnight into this morning in a zone of warm advection over southern MO, and clouds/differential heating will reinforce a baroclinic zone across southern/western AR into southwestern MO. This baroclinic zone will serve to focus additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon near the MO/AR/OK border intersection, and storms will subsequently move southeastward through the evening. There will be a narrow corridor of overlap of moderate buoyancy and somewhat stronger vertical shear along the surface boundary where some low-end supercell potential will exist (at the northeast edge of the stronger surface heating and deeper mixing). Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be possible with any supercells that form. Otherwise, a few cells/clusters may form along the slow-moving front farther southeast toward central MS, where MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will support the potential for isolated strong/damaging downbursts. Buoyancy will be weaker in the warm sector farther west along the cold front in OK/eastern TX Panhandle and storm coverage is in question. If storms do form, deep inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE (> 1500 J/kg) will support the threat for isolated microbursts. ...Southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity this afternoon/evening... Low-level flow is expected to become weak upslope in a post-frontal environment from southeast CO into northeast NM by later this afternoon. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep within the lingering monsoonal moisture plume, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s and surface heating will result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon along and just east of the higher terrain, and convection will spread east-southeastward onto the High Plains. Steepening low-level lapse rates and clustering/upscale growth may support isolated strong outflow gusts. ...Northern MN and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A convectively-enhanced shortwave trough near the MN/ON/MB border intersection will move slowly east-southeastward near the international border through the afternoon. An associated wind shift/weak cold front extends west-southwestward from northwest MN into eastern ND. Ascent along the wind shift, in combination with pockets of surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and modest vertical shear will support isolated marginally severe hail and strong/damaging outflow gusts. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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