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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, August 14, 2022

SPC Aug 14, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered convection capable of isolated/marginally severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of the central High Plains region, as well as parts of North Dakota, this afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridge-peripheral disturbances and moderately strong winds aloft will influence the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies into the central High Plains into this afternoon and tonight. Scattered convection will likely initially develop and increase across Wyoming/northern Colorado this afternoon as boundary layer warming aids destabilization. Weak deep-layer flow/shear suggest updrafts will struggle to organize; however, sufficiently steep lapse rates and adequate instability favor gusty winds and perhaps marginally severe hail with the strongest cores as storms develop east-northeastward. Model guidance suggests a notable increase to the low-level jet this evening across the central High Plains including western portions of Kansas/Nebraska, which should support eastward storm propagation after sunset. ...Western/northern North Dakota and vicinity... Have introduced low severe probabilities for the potential of a few strong/severe storms across the region, primarily late this afternoon and evening. In the wake of some early day cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms, a moist/potentially unstable air mass will persist near/east of a surface low/front-related triple point. Subsequent development toward/after peak heating may remain fairly isolated. Regardless, the environment would seemingly support some semi-sustained multicells and possibly a few slow-moving supercells particularly across western/northern Dakota if/where storms do develop. Localized severe-wind gusts and hail may occur. ...South Texas... Low-level southeasterly winds may modestly strengthen today in proximity to a westward drifting area of low pressure centered across Deep South Texas. A few weak/transient supercells are conceivable near the coast, but even so, destabilization inland should be hindered by cloud cover/precipitation and any low-level shear/SRH increase should remain modest overall. Thus, current thinking is the tornado/wind gust-related severe potential will remain negligible across the region. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC