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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER

Sunday, August 14, 2022

SPC Aug 14, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered convection capable of isolated/marginally severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of the central High Plains region, as well as parts of North Dakota, this afternoon and evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridge-peripheral disturbances and moderately strong winds aloft will influence the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies into the central High Plains into this afternoon and tonight. Scattered convection will likely initially develop and increase across Wyoming/northern Colorado this afternoon as boundary layer warming aids destabilization. Weak deep-layer flow/shear suggest updrafts will struggle to organize; however, sufficiently steep lapse rates and adequate instability favor gusty winds and perhaps marginally severe hail with the strongest cores as storms develop east-northeastward. Model guidance suggests a notable increase to the low-level jet this evening across the central High Plains including western portions of Kansas/Nebraska, which should support eastward storm propagation after sunset. ...Western/northern North Dakota and vicinity... Have introduced low severe probabilities for the potential of a few strong/severe storms across the region, primarily late this afternoon and evening. In the wake of some early day cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms, a moist/potentially unstable air mass will persist near/east of a surface low/front-related triple point. Subsequent development toward/after peak heating may remain fairly isolated. Regardless, the environment would seemingly support some semi-sustained multicells and possibly a few slow-moving supercells particularly across western/northern Dakota if/where storms do develop. Localized severe-wind gusts and hail may occur. ...South Texas... Low-level southeasterly winds may modestly strengthen today in proximity to a westward drifting area of low pressure centered across Deep South Texas. A few weak/transient supercells are conceivable near the coast, but even so, destabilization inland should be hindered by cloud cover/precipitation and any low-level shear/SRH increase should remain modest overall. Thus, current thinking is the tornado/wind gust-related severe potential will remain negligible across the region. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SWcrCK
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)