SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered convection capable of isolated/marginally severe
thunderstorms will spread across portions of the central High Plains
region, as well as parts of North Dakota, this afternoon and
evening.
...Central High Plains...
Upper ridge-peripheral disturbances and moderately strong winds
aloft will influence the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies into
the central High Plains into this afternoon and tonight. Scattered
convection will likely initially develop and increase across
Wyoming/northern Colorado this afternoon as boundary layer warming
aids destabilization. Weak deep-layer flow/shear suggest updrafts
will struggle to organize; however, sufficiently steep lapse rates
and adequate instability favor gusty winds and perhaps marginally
severe hail with the strongest cores as storms develop
east-northeastward. Model guidance suggests a notable increase to
the low-level jet this evening across the central High Plains
including western portions of Kansas/Nebraska, which should support
eastward storm propagation after sunset.
...Western/northern North Dakota and vicinity...
Have introduced low severe probabilities for the potential of a few
strong/severe storms across the region, primarily late this
afternoon and evening. In the wake of some early day cloud cover and
isolated thunderstorms, a moist/potentially unstable air mass will
persist near/east of a surface low/front-related triple point.
Subsequent development toward/after peak heating may remain fairly
isolated. Regardless, the environment would seemingly support some
semi-sustained multicells and possibly a few slow-moving supercells
particularly across western/northern Dakota if/where storms do
develop. Localized severe-wind gusts and hail may occur.
...South Texas...
Low-level southeasterly winds may modestly strengthen today in
proximity to a westward drifting area of low pressure centered
across Deep South Texas. A few weak/transient supercells are
conceivable near the coast, but even so, destabilization inland
should be hindered by cloud cover/precipitation and any low-level
shear/SRH increase should remain modest overall. Thus, current
thinking is the tornado/wind gust-related severe potential will
remain negligible across the region.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 08/14/2022
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