SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across
parts of eastern Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Eastern Georgia into the Carolinas and Southern Virginia...
A large-scale upper trough should remain over much of the eastern
CONUS and Canada on Monday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level
northwesterly winds is forecast to persist from parts of the OH/TN
Valleys into the Southeast. At the surface, low-level moisture
should gradually increase ahead of a front that should move
east-southeastward across the central Appalachians into the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Weak to moderate instability
should develop ahead of this boundary by Monday afternoon as diurnal
heating occurs. Low-level lapse rates are also forecast to steepen,
especially ahead of convection that may be ongoing Monday morning.
Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized updrafts, and
most guidance shows the potential for one or more clusters of
surface-based thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of the front and
spread east-southeastward through Monday evening. A Marginal Risk
has been included where the best signal for robust convection exists
Monday afternoon, from parts of eastern GA into the Carolinas and
southern VA.
...Central Plains...
A surface low should be present over KS into southern NE on Monday,
with rich low-level moisture extending in a narrow corridor from the
Southeast into the Ozarks and central Plains. An upper ridge will
likely remain prominent over much of the western CONUS into the
southern Plains, with nebulous large-scale forcing aloft over the
central Plains. Even so, a ribbon of moderate instability may
develop across parts of NE/KS by late Monday afternoon along the
axis of greater low-level moisture. A large degree of uncertainty
remains regarding potential for surface-based thunderstorm
development. But, if any convection can develop across the narrow
warm sector, it would have the potential to become severe given the
favorable instability and sufficient deep-layer shear forecast. Have
opted to not include low severe probabilities for now, as the severe
threat appears rather conditional on thunderstorms developing.
..Gleason.. 08/13/2022
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