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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, August 13, 2022

SPC Aug 13, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Monday across parts of eastern Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. ...Eastern Georgia into the Carolinas and Southern Virginia... A large-scale upper trough should remain over much of the eastern CONUS and Canada on Monday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level northwesterly winds is forecast to persist from parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast. At the surface, low-level moisture should gradually increase ahead of a front that should move east-southeastward across the central Appalachians into the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Weak to moderate instability should develop ahead of this boundary by Monday afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. Low-level lapse rates are also forecast to steepen, especially ahead of convection that may be ongoing Monday morning. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized updrafts, and most guidance shows the potential for one or more clusters of surface-based thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of the front and spread east-southeastward through Monday evening. A Marginal Risk has been included where the best signal for robust convection exists Monday afternoon, from parts of eastern GA into the Carolinas and southern VA. ...Central Plains... A surface low should be present over KS into southern NE on Monday, with rich low-level moisture extending in a narrow corridor from the Southeast into the Ozarks and central Plains. An upper ridge will likely remain prominent over much of the western CONUS into the southern Plains, with nebulous large-scale forcing aloft over the central Plains. Even so, a ribbon of moderate instability may develop across parts of NE/KS by late Monday afternoon along the axis of greater low-level moisture. A large degree of uncertainty remains regarding potential for surface-based thunderstorm development. But, if any convection can develop across the narrow warm sector, it would have the potential to become severe given the favorable instability and sufficient deep-layer shear forecast. Have opted to not include low severe probabilities for now, as the severe threat appears rather conditional on thunderstorms developing. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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