SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Little change to the upper pattern is anticipated on Sunday. An
upper ridge should remain centered over much of the Rockies and
adjacent Plains, while an upper trough persists over the eastern
states. At the surface, a weak low should develop slowly across the
OH Valley through the day, with an attendant cold front forecast to
advance southward across this region and the mid MS Valley as well.
Some instability should develop south of this boundary, and
deep-layer shear will be modestly enhanced owing to gradually
strengthening mid/upper-level northwesterly flow with height. But,
weak large-scale forcing and limited low-level convergence along the
front suggest generally low potential for surface-based/organized
severe convection at this time.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms should develop through the day across parts
of TX into the Southeast along/south of a remnant front, and along
sea breeze boundaries. Weak shear across these regions is expected
to hinder convective organization. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms should also develop Sunday afternoon and evening
across parts of the Southwest into the Rockies and northern/central
Plains, with initial development focused over the higher terrain.
These regions will be located on the western and northern periphery
of the upper ridge. Although weak to moderate instability may
develop Sunday afternoon across parts of the northern Plains along
and east of a surface trough, deep-layer shear and overall
thunderstorm coverage both appear too limited to support inclusion
of low severe probabilities.
..Gleason.. 08/12/2022
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