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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, August 12, 2022

SPC Aug 12, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Little change to the upper pattern is anticipated on Sunday. An upper ridge should remain centered over much of the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an upper trough persists over the eastern states. At the surface, a weak low should develop slowly across the OH Valley through the day, with an attendant cold front forecast to advance southward across this region and the mid MS Valley as well. Some instability should develop south of this boundary, and deep-layer shear will be modestly enhanced owing to gradually strengthening mid/upper-level northwesterly flow with height. But, weak large-scale forcing and limited low-level convergence along the front suggest generally low potential for surface-based/organized severe convection at this time. Elsewhere, thunderstorms should develop through the day across parts of TX into the Southeast along/south of a remnant front, and along sea breeze boundaries. Weak shear across these regions is expected to hinder convective organization. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should also develop Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Southwest into the Rockies and northern/central Plains, with initial development focused over the higher terrain. These regions will be located on the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge. Although weak to moderate instability may develop Sunday afternoon across parts of the northern Plains along and east of a surface trough, deep-layer shear and overall thunderstorm coverage both appear too limited to support inclusion of low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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