SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
Little change to the upper-level pattern is expected on Saturday,
with a prominent trough across the eastern CONUS, a ridge over
portions of the central/southern Great Plains, and a trough over the
Pacific Northwest. A cold front is forecast to slow down and
eventually become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the Gulf
Coast. Farther north, a weak surface low is forecast to move along a
secondary front from the Upper Midwest into portions of the Great
Lakes.
The richer low-level moisture is expected to remain confined near
the Gulf Coast, though some residual moisture may support weak to
moderate destabilization along the secondary front from portions of
the Midwest northwestward into the northern Great Plains. While
midlevel northwesterly flow will support pockets of 30-40 kt
effective shear from the Dakotas into the Midwest, the potential for
surface-based storm development remains quite uncertain across these
areas. Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts
of MT, though deep-layer shear is expected to be somewhat weaker
compared to the northwesterly flow regime farther east. Localized
areas of severe potential may eventually evolve on Saturday, but
confidence in the magnitude and location of any such threat is too
low to include severe probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 08/11/2022
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