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Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, August 11, 2022

SPC Aug 11, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Little change to the upper-level pattern is expected on Saturday, with a prominent trough across the eastern CONUS, a ridge over portions of the central/southern Great Plains, and a trough over the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is forecast to slow down and eventually become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast. Farther north, a weak surface low is forecast to move along a secondary front from the Upper Midwest into portions of the Great Lakes. The richer low-level moisture is expected to remain confined near the Gulf Coast, though some residual moisture may support weak to moderate destabilization along the secondary front from portions of the Midwest northwestward into the northern Great Plains. While midlevel northwesterly flow will support pockets of 30-40 kt effective shear from the Dakotas into the Midwest, the potential for surface-based storm development remains quite uncertain across these areas. Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of MT, though deep-layer shear is expected to be somewhat weaker compared to the northwesterly flow regime farther east. Localized areas of severe potential may eventually evolve on Saturday, but confidence in the magnitude and location of any such threat is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 08/11/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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