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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, July 9, 2022

SPC Jul 9, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Monday from parts of the central and southern High Plains east-northeastward into the southwestern Great Lakes. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the north-central U.S. on Monday, as a 55 to 65 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance south-southeastward across the mid Missouri Valley, upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes. A narrow corridor of moderate instability should develop south of the front by Monday afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms that form along or near the front are forecast to move southeastward during the late afternoon. Although moderate deep-layer shear will be in place near the front from the lower Missouri Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes, model forecasts suggest that much of the convection will remain post-frontal. If a few storms can develop to the south of the front, where the stronger instability is located, then an isolated severe threat would be possible. Isolated wind damage and hail would be the primary threats. ...Southern and Central Plains... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday across the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across Kansas and eastern Colorado during the day. A narrow corridor of instability just south of the front will be likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form along or near the front will move southward into the stronger instability. Although 0-6 km shear is only forecast in the 30 to 35 range, the stronger cells could have an isolated wind-damage potential due to steep low-level lapse rates. Hail could also occur but should be minimized due to the warm temperatures aloft. ..Broyles.. 07/09/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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