SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat will be possible on Monday from parts of
the central and southern High Plains east-northeastward into the
southwestern Great Lakes. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the
primary threats.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great
Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the
north-central U.S. on Monday, as a 55 to 65 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a cold front will advance south-southeastward across the
mid Missouri Valley, upper Mississippi Valley and western Great
Lakes. A narrow corridor of moderate instability should develop
south of the front by Monday afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to peak
in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms that form along or
near the front are forecast to move southeastward during the late
afternoon. Although moderate deep-layer shear will be in place near
the front from the lower Missouri Valley into the southwestern Great
Lakes, model forecasts suggest that much of the convection will
remain post-frontal. If a few storms can develop to the south of the
front, where the stronger instability is located, then an isolated
severe threat would be possible. Isolated wind damage and hail would
be the primary threats.
...Southern and Central Plains...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday across the
Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance
southward across Kansas and eastern Colorado during the day. A
narrow corridor of instability just south of the front will be
likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form along or near the front
will move southward into the stronger instability. Although 0-6 km
shear is only forecast in the 30 to 35 range, the stronger cells
could have an isolated wind-damage potential due to steep low-level
lapse rates. Hail could also occur but should be minimized due to
the warm temperatures aloft.
..Broyles.. 07/09/2022
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