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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, July 9, 2022

SPC Jul 9, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly east-southeastward from the western Great Lakes to the Atlantic coastal states. Ahead of the upper-level trough, a moist airmass will destabilize each day, with scattered thunderstorms forming each afternoon and evening from the southern and central Appalachians to the Eastern Seaboard. An isolated severe threat will be possible across much of the moist airmass, in areas that destabilize the most. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, which should keep the severe threat marginal each afternoon. Further to the north, a mid-level jet of 55 to 65 knots is forecast to move eastward across the Northeast on Tuesday. The mid-level jet should create strong deep-layer shear across parts of the Appalachians from Pennsylvania into New York. Although there is some uncertainty concerning instability, MLCAPE should become strong enough during the afternoon for severe storms. Wind damage and hail would be the primary threats with the stronger storms that develop and move off of the higher terrain. ...Friday/Day 7 to Saturday/Day 8... A moist airmass will be in place across parts of the northern Plains from Thursday into Friday. Large-scale subsidence, associated with an upper-level ridge, should keep convective coverage very isolated. On Saturday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the north-central U.S. as an upper-level ridge develops further to the west, into the northern High Plains. Convective coverage should again be isolated on Saturday due to the upper-level ridge. In spite of capping issues, cells that can initiate during the late afternoon, could be associated with an isolated severe threat. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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