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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, July 8, 2022

SPC Jul 8, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated very large hail and significant outflow gusts are possible late this afternoon into early tonight across Montana, and occasional damaging winds will be possible this afternoon across Kentucky and vicinity. No changes were required to the outlook at 20Z. ..Jewell.. 07/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022/ ...OH Valley into the Southeast this afternoon/evening... An expansive midlevel ridge will dominate the Southwest and southern Plains through the period, with mostly weak west-northwesterly flow over the upper MS and OH Valleys. Weak convectively-enhanced perturbations in the west-northwest flow, with associated convective clusters, will continue to move east-southeastward through the afternoon from southern IN into KY. These storm clusters will move along the southern fringe of the 30 kt midlevel flow, and along a baroclinic zone coincident with the northern edge of the warmest boundary layer, where dewpoints will range from the low to mid 70s. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, the warm/moist boundary layer will drive MLCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range, which will help maintain the ongoing clusters, and support additional storm development to the southwest along the trailing outflow near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. The modest midlevel flow and steepening low-level lapse rates during the afternoon will support occasional strong/damaging outflow gusts as the main threat across KY and vicinity. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are expected in the weak northwest flow regime into the Carolinas/GA this afternoon, with storm development focused along diffuse boundaries/differential heating zones. The weak flow and poor midlevel lapse rates suggest that pulse storm downbursts with outflow winds near or above 50 kt will be sparse. ...MT area later this afternoon into western ND tonight... Clusters of high-based thunderstorms are expected to form from southwest into central/north central MT later this afternoon/evening, in association with surface heating/deep mixing and embedded speed maxima moving around the northwest periphery of the Southwest/southern Plains ridge aloft. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be replenished from the southwest during the day, and surface heating will boost MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Long hodographs with effective shear in excess of 40 kt, in combination with the steep lapse rates and strong buoyancy will support clusters with embedded supercells and bowing segments, capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated significant outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...High Plains area this afternoon/evening... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening east of the high terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO. Forcing for ascent will be weak, but terrain circulations and weak upslope low-level flow should support storm development. Deep-layer, northwesterly vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells and small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts and hail late this afternoon through late evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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