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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, July 7, 2022

SPC Jul 7, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MONTANA...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible from parts of the Southeast to the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts are also possible in Montana from late afternoon through the evening. No updates are needed for the 20Z outlook. ..Jewell.. 07/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022/ ...MT and vicinity... The continued presence of mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points banked along the northern Rockies will support another round of scattered thunderstorms off the higher terrain by late afternoon. Amid low-amplitude mid-level ridging from the central Rockies to the Prairie Provinces, a belt of moderate southwesterlies/westerlies atop weak low-level easterlies will yield sufficient bulk shear for a few initial supercells centered on central MT that should consolidate into a couple eastward-moving clusters this evening. With 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE becoming common, large hail will be the primary initial hazard transitioning to predominantly severe wind gusts in time. Overall severe threat will gradually diminish overnight as MLCIN strengthens across eastern MT into the western Dakotas. ...Lower OH Valley to the Southeast... To the southeast of a decaying non-severe MCS over IL, robust boundary-layer heating and very rich low-level moisture will support a broad area of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. This activity should tend to focus along residual outflow boundaries, the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians, and a weak cold front sinking south in VA. Relative maxima of large buoyancy will be centered on middle TN and separately along the Carolina coastal plain, while very poor mid-level lapse rates with 700-500 mb values less than 5 C/km will be prevalent from VA north, east of the Appalachians. Deep-tropospheric flow will be quite weak with effective bulk shear largely around 10-15 kt. This will favor extensive disorganized pulse convection with wet microbursts capable of localized damaging winds. It's plausible that weakly organized multicell clustering may occur within mesoscale corridors, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening, which would temporarily increase the wind damage threat. ...Lower MO Valley... Convective outflow in the wake of a decaying MCS has pushed as far south as southwest MO. This boundary should wash out or effectively consolidate north across northern portions of KS/MO as a warm front by early evening with pronounced differential heating across it. Modest low-level warm advection and an upstream MCV drifting east from central NE should aid in scattered thunderstorm development during the evening. With a confined corridor of large buoyancy expected along and just south of the front, coincident with enhanced 0-3 km SRH along and just north of it, an organized multicell cluster may develop and gradually spread east-southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but a tornado will also be possible before convection weakens overnight. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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