Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough should continue to move eastward across the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Sunday.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the
northern Plains, with a lingering severe threat. Moderate to strong
instability and strong effective bulk shear will likely support
organized severe convection across parts of these regions on Sunday.
Additional robust thunderstorms should develop along/ahead of a cold
front from parts of the eastern Dakotas into much of MN and vicinity
through Sunday evening. Shear appears strong enough for supercells
with a threat for all severe hazards, but eventual upscale growth
into a bowing cluster/MCS, with a greater threat for damaging winds,
may also occur. Have maintained the 15% severe area on Sunday with
adjustments based on latest guidance.
Some severe threat will probably continue into Day 5/Monday as the
upper trough advances over the Midwest/Great Lakes. But, too much
uncertainty currently exists in the placement and overall coverage
of severe thunderstorms to include a 15% severe area. Similarly, at
least isolated severe potential may exist across portions of the
Midwest, OH Valley, and eastern states in the Day 6/Tuesday to Day
7/Wednesday time frame. However, there is considerable uncertainty
with how much instability will develop ahead of a cold front across
these regions. Confidence in the placement and evolution of the
upper trough also becomes lower at this extended time frame.
Accordingly, it appears premature to include any 15% severe areas at
this time.
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