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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Thursday, July 7, 2022

SPC Jul 7, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough should continue to move eastward across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Sunday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the northern Plains, with a lingering severe threat. Moderate to strong instability and strong effective bulk shear will likely support organized severe convection across parts of these regions on Sunday. Additional robust thunderstorms should develop along/ahead of a cold front from parts of the eastern Dakotas into much of MN and vicinity through Sunday evening. Shear appears strong enough for supercells with a threat for all severe hazards, but eventual upscale growth into a bowing cluster/MCS, with a greater threat for damaging winds, may also occur. Have maintained the 15% severe area on Sunday with adjustments based on latest guidance. Some severe threat will probably continue into Day 5/Monday as the upper trough advances over the Midwest/Great Lakes. But, too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and overall coverage of severe thunderstorms to include a 15% severe area. Similarly, at least isolated severe potential may exist across portions of the Midwest, OH Valley, and eastern states in the Day 6/Tuesday to Day 7/Wednesday time frame. However, there is considerable uncertainty with how much instability will develop ahead of a cold front across these regions. Confidence in the placement and evolution of the upper trough also becomes lower at this extended time frame. Accordingly, it appears premature to include any 15% severe areas at this time. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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