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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, July 7, 2022

SPC Jul 7, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the northern Plains. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move eastward across the northern Rockies/Plains and western Canada on Saturday. This trough will act to suppress large-scale upper ridging over the northern Plains. Warm low/mid-level temperatures associated with a strong cap should tend to suppress convection through much of the day. However, some guidance does show robust thunderstorms developing across the open warm sector in ND during the day. If this convection forms, it would be on the northeastern extent of the cap and EML plume emanating from the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies. Additional thunderstorms are expected to form Saturday evening/night across MT into ND as ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a cold front sweeps eastward. Even though details in convective evolution remain somewhat unclear, the strong forecast instability and deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms posing a threat for all hazards through Saturday night. ...Southeast... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread much of the Southeast on Saturday. A weak front is also forecast to sag slowly southward across this region through the period. A very moist low-level airmass should be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating will contribute to moderate/strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates by Saturday afternoon. Even though deep-layer shear should remain modest, multiple loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly wind damage should spread south-southeastward across much of the Southeast through Saturday afternoon. A broad Marginal Risk has been included to account for the damaging-wind potential, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if corridors of greater mesoscale severe potential become evident. ..Gleason.. 07/07/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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