SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday into
Saturday night across parts of the northern Plains.
...Northern Plains...
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move
eastward across the northern Rockies/Plains and western Canada on
Saturday. This trough will act to suppress large-scale upper ridging
over the northern Plains. Warm low/mid-level temperatures associated
with a strong cap should tend to suppress convection through much of
the day. However, some guidance does show robust thunderstorms
developing across the open warm sector in ND during the day. If this
convection forms, it would be on the northeastern extent of the cap
and EML plume emanating from the higher terrain of the
northern/central Rockies. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
form Saturday evening/night across MT into ND as ascent associated
with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a cold front
sweeps eastward. Even though details in convective evolution remain
somewhat unclear, the strong forecast instability and deep-layer
shear will be more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms posing a
threat for all hazards through Saturday night.
...Southeast...
Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread much of the
Southeast on Saturday. A weak front is also forecast to sag slowly
southward across this region through the period. A very moist
low-level airmass should be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal
heating will contribute to moderate/strong instability and steepened
low-level lapse rates by Saturday afternoon. Even though deep-layer
shear should remain modest, multiple loosely organized clusters
capable of producing mainly wind damage should spread
south-southeastward across much of the Southeast through Saturday
afternoon. A broad Marginal Risk has been included to account for
the damaging-wind potential, and greater severe probabilities may
eventually be needed if corridors of greater mesoscale severe
potential become evident.
..Gleason.. 07/07/2022
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