SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO/KENTUCKY
INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern High Plains/Rockies, central High Plains, and the Ohio
Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas.
Convection continues to increase in coverage along an east-west
oriented boundary from northern KY across southern OH, with MLCAPE
to 3000 J/kg noted on objective analysis. Modest midlevel westerlies
should aid east/southeastward progression of existing storms which
have organized into a small MCS over southwest OH. Damaging gusts
will continue to be the primary concern. Severe thunderstorm watches
continues until 23Z, extending east/southeast of the ongoing cluster
toward WV. See mesoscale discussion 1398 for more information.
Other sporadic severe storms remain possible farther south into KY
and TN, but with less of a focus. Given favorable time of day,
additional clustering of cells is possible, with corridors of strong
to severe gusts. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1396.
Elsewhere, storms are expected to form over southwest and central MT
later this afternoon, with hail and wind risk, and across eastern CO
where a moist air mass has banked up against the Front Range.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022/
...Northern High Plains/Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon off
the higher terrain of western/southern MT into northeast WY, with a
plume of 50s to low 60s surface dew points being maintained over the
adjacent High Plains. The largest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500
J/kg will be present across parts of central to eastern MT within a
plume of moist, low-level east-southeasterlies. Deep-layer shear
will be weakest in the northeast WY vicinity around the north rim of
a minor mid-level impulse drifting across the central High Plains.
Farther northwest, weaknesses in the hodograph from 700-500 mb
should result in more transient supercell structures and tendency
for outflow-dominant cells to consolidate into clusters from central
to northeast MT. A mix of large hail and severe wind gusts are
anticipated, likely becoming more dominated by wind with time before
convection weakens tonight.
...Central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the Front Range later this
afternoon and gradually spread east across the adjacent High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening. With 500-mb
temperatures around -6 C, severe potential will largely be driven by
the degree of boundary-layer heating/moisture. Stratus has persisted
across northeast CO and vicinity, but has gradually been eroding.
Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg is eventually
expected by late afternoon. Weak low-level northeasterlies beneath
modest mid to upper-level southwesterlies will provide sufficient
deep-layer shear for multicell clusters with embedded supercells
consolidating into a slow-moving MCS this evening. A mix of severe
hail and wind transitioning to mainly wind is expected before
weakening later tonight.
...OH Valley to VA and the Southeast...
At least a trio of MCVs are evident in a train from the Mid-Atlantic
region to the Mid-MO Valley. The most substantial of which for
severe potential is drifting east across OH with deep convection
ongoing to its south. With peak buoyancy at present over TN/KY,
further destabilization is expected to the south of this ongoing
activity. Intensification and expansion of convective development
along outflows should yield multicell clusters spreading
east-southeast across parts of the central/upper OH Valley,
Cumberland Plateau, and central Appalachians into early evening.
Scattered damaging winds will be the primary threat.
Scattered to numerous pulse thunderstorms will likely develop
farther south across the southern Appalachians and vicinity where
localized downbursts producing tree damage will be the main threat.
Thunderstorms are also anticipated farther north into VA where a
belt of 25-35 kt 700-500 mb winds would support greater potential
for multicell clustering and transient/low-end supercell structures.
Primary uncertainties in this area are the degree of destabilization
and convective coverage in the wake of a decaying MCV near the
southeast PA/northeast MD border.
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