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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

SPC Jul 6, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO/KENTUCKY INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern High Plains/Rockies, central High Plains, and the Ohio Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas. Convection continues to increase in coverage along an east-west oriented boundary from northern KY across southern OH, with MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg noted on objective analysis. Modest midlevel westerlies should aid east/southeastward progression of existing storms which have organized into a small MCS over southwest OH. Damaging gusts will continue to be the primary concern. Severe thunderstorm watches continues until 23Z, extending east/southeast of the ongoing cluster toward WV. See mesoscale discussion 1398 for more information. Other sporadic severe storms remain possible farther south into KY and TN, but with less of a focus. Given favorable time of day, additional clustering of cells is possible, with corridors of strong to severe gusts. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1396. Elsewhere, storms are expected to form over southwest and central MT later this afternoon, with hail and wind risk, and across eastern CO where a moist air mass has banked up against the Front Range. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022/ ...Northern High Plains/Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon off the higher terrain of western/southern MT into northeast WY, with a plume of 50s to low 60s surface dew points being maintained over the adjacent High Plains. The largest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be present across parts of central to eastern MT within a plume of moist, low-level east-southeasterlies. Deep-layer shear will be weakest in the northeast WY vicinity around the north rim of a minor mid-level impulse drifting across the central High Plains. Farther northwest, weaknesses in the hodograph from 700-500 mb should result in more transient supercell structures and tendency for outflow-dominant cells to consolidate into clusters from central to northeast MT. A mix of large hail and severe wind gusts are anticipated, likely becoming more dominated by wind with time before convection weakens tonight. ...Central High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the Front Range later this afternoon and gradually spread east across the adjacent High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. With 500-mb temperatures around -6 C, severe potential will largely be driven by the degree of boundary-layer heating/moisture. Stratus has persisted across northeast CO and vicinity, but has gradually been eroding. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg is eventually expected by late afternoon. Weak low-level northeasterlies beneath modest mid to upper-level southwesterlies will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for multicell clusters with embedded supercells consolidating into a slow-moving MCS this evening. A mix of severe hail and wind transitioning to mainly wind is expected before weakening later tonight. ...OH Valley to VA and the Southeast... At least a trio of MCVs are evident in a train from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Mid-MO Valley. The most substantial of which for severe potential is drifting east across OH with deep convection ongoing to its south. With peak buoyancy at present over TN/KY, further destabilization is expected to the south of this ongoing activity. Intensification and expansion of convective development along outflows should yield multicell clusters spreading east-southeast across parts of the central/upper OH Valley, Cumberland Plateau, and central Appalachians into early evening. Scattered damaging winds will be the primary threat. Scattered to numerous pulse thunderstorms will likely develop farther south across the southern Appalachians and vicinity where localized downbursts producing tree damage will be the main threat. Thunderstorms are also anticipated farther north into VA where a belt of 25-35 kt 700-500 mb winds would support greater potential for multicell clustering and transient/low-end supercell structures. Primary uncertainties in this area are the degree of destabilization and convective coverage in the wake of a decaying MCV near the southeast PA/northeast MD border. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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