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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

SPC Jul 6, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest should translate eastward across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest this upcoming weekend. This feature is forecast to suppress a large-scale upper ridge over the Plains and Southwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures associated with a substantial cap and preceding the upper trough should act to inhibit convection across much of the northern Plains through Day 4/Saturday afternoon. But, robust thunderstorms should develop Saturday evening/night as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough overspreads eastern MT into ND and vicinity. This activity may also be aided by a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Strong instability and deep-layer shear are forecast across this region, and any thunderstorms that can develop should pose a severe threat, with supercells possible. Have therefore introduced a 15% severe area across parts of the northern Plains for Saturday where confidence is greater that thunderstorms will form. An organized severe threat should continue across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Day 5/Sunday. Enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly winds should foster strong deep-layer shear, and moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorms that are in progress Sunday morning across portions of the northern Plains may continue southeastward through the day, and additional robust convection may develop along/ahead of the front Sunday afternoon/evening. A cap may tend to limit the southwestward extent of severe potential into central SD, NE, and IA. Still, the ascent associated with the shortwave trough and cold front should support the maintenance and/or development of severe thunderstorms into much of MN and vicinity. Some severe potential should persist into the early/middle portions of next week as the upper trough continues southeastward across the Midwest, Great Lakes, OH Valley, and eventually the eastern states. However, there is currently too much uncertainty in the placement and evolution of the upper trough and related surface features to include any 15% severe areas from Day 6/Monday onward. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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