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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, July 6, 2022

SPC Jul 6, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... An upper ridge should remain prominent across much of the High Plains into central Canada on Friday. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow preceding an upper trough over the West Coast is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent northern Plains of central/eastern MT through the period. A moist low-level airmass should also be present along/east of surface trough extending across the northern High Plains. At least moderate instability should once again develop across much of MT and vicinity as daytime heating occurs. Steep mid-level lapse rates should also be present over the warm sector. Current expectations are for initially high-based convection that forms over the northern Rockies Friday afternoon to spread generally northeastward across central/eastern MT through Friday night. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for supercells, with an associated threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts. Some upscale growth into one or more small bowing clusters may also occur Friday evening/night with eastward extent into MT. Overall coverage of thunderstorms becomes less clear into the Dakotas, but at least an isolated severe threat should exist owing to a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Central/Southern Appalachians and Southeast... A weak front should be draped generally west to east across these regions on Friday. Any appreciable severe threat will likely remain confined along/south of this boundary through the period. Mid-level west-northwesterly flow around 15-25 kt should limit deep-layer shear. But, some modest updraft organization may still occur as thunderstorms develop along/south of the front Friday afternoon. With multiple days of preceding convection acting to overturn the moist low-level airmass across these regions, it remains uncertain whether the moderate to strong instability forecast by most guidance will materialize. Have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk for mainly damaging winds associated with multicell clusters given this uncertainty and the generally weak deep-layer shear forecast. Greater severe probabilities may be needed if a more focused corridor of severe/damaging wind potential becomes clearer. ..Gleason.. 07/06/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)