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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, July 4, 2022

SPC Jul 4, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from parts of the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Some thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across a portion of the Midwest. It remains unclear whether they will persist with eastward extent into the afternoon. A nearly stationary front across the Midwest into the OH Valley should provide a focus for severe convection on Wednesday. As diurnal heating occurs, strong instability should develop along/south of the boundary by Wednesday afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. One or more bowing clusters may move east-southeastward across this favorable thermodynamic environment through the period, with latest guidance offering a myriad of possible solutions/tracks to these possible MCSs. Regardless, have included a zone of Slight Risk equivalent severe probabilities where confidence is somewhat greater in robust thunderstorms occurring capable of producing severe/damaging winds and hail. Farther east across southern VA into the Carolinas, deep-layer shear is forecast to be a bit weaker. Still, multiple loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly wind damage should occur as convection develops along/south of a front and spreads east-southeastward through Wednesday evening. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains through the period. But, a weak shortwave trough should overspread parts of the northern Rockies/Plains through Wednesday evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature should encourage convective development over the higher terrain initially. As this activity spreads into the adjacent High Plains, it will likely encounter greater low-level moisture and related instability. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for a mix of multicells and supercells capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds. ..Gleason.. 07/04/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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