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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, July 4, 2022

SPC Jul 4, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large-scale upper ridging should gradually amplify across much of the High Plains, Rockies, and central Canada from Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to remain over much of the northern Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and eastern states to the south of a front in this time frame. Robust thunderstorm development may occur across parts of these regions each afternoon/evening as strong instability develops with daytime heating. Greater severe potential should be tied to weak, low-amplitude shortwave troughs which will traverse the apex of the ridge and then proceed generally east-southeastward. The placement/evolution of these features, some of which should be convectively induced/augmented, remains difficult at this extended time frame. Even though predictability remains low, some severe probabilities should eventually be needed across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains, Midwest, OH Valley, and perhaps parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas on both Thursday and Friday once mesoscale details become clearer. Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement that an amplified shortwave trough may progress east-northeastward across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies/Plains, and central Canada this upcoming weekend. This feature should suppress the upper ridge to some extent, with surface cyclogenesis possible across some portion of the northern Plains into Canada. An organized severe thunderstorm episode may occur as the shortwave trough moves across these regions from Day 6/Saturday into Day 7/Sunday. If the timing and evolution of this feature remain consistent in guidance, then 15% severe areas may eventually be needed for both days across some portion of the northern Plains and perhaps the Upper Midwest. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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