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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, July 4, 2022

SPC Jul 4, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The most concentrated corridor of severe storms, including potential for significant severe wind/hail and a few tornadoes, is forecast across parts of Montana into southwest North Dakota through this evening. ...01z Update... Latest satellite imagery and diagnostic data suggest a weak short-wave trough is topping the ridge over central MT. Scattered convection has developed ahead of this feature with multiple thunderstorm clusters now evident from south-central into eastern MT. Easterly low-level is maintaining moisture across the northern High Plains which is contributing to MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg across much of eastern MT, south of a front draped from west of GDV-into the Dakotas. With LLJ expected to increase across the central High Plains into the Dakotas after sunset, a continued eastward propagation of the overall convective field is likely. Another notable short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across CO toward western NE. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection from north of SNY-west of CNK. This corridor will remain active, especially as LLJ strengthens over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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