SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will
be possible on Monday from the Lower Missouri Valley into the
eastern Great Lakes, and across parts of the Pacific Northwest.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes
region on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the
lower Missouri Valley, northern Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes.
Surface dewpoints near and ahead of the front will be generally in
the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate
instability is expected across much of this moist airmass. During
the day, thunderstorms are forecast to first develop along and ahead
of the front from lower Michigan southwestward into parts of
northern Ohio and northern Indiana. By late afternoon, isolated
convective initiation is expected from the northern Ohio Valley
westward into the lower Missouri Valley. Deep-layer shear near and
ahead of the front is forecast to generally be in the 30 to 35 knot
range. This along with steep low-level lapse rates should be enough
for a marginal wind-damage threat. Hail could also occur with the
stronger multicells.
...Pacific Northwest...
An upper-level low is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest on
Monday. At the surface, a somewhat most airmass should be in place
in parts of western Oregon and western Washington. Within this
airmass, a small pocket of moderate instability is expected to
develop across the Willamette Valley by afternoon. NAM forecast
soundings to the south of Portland for 00Z/Tuesday have MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots.
This along with steep mid-level lapse rates should be enough for a
marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening.
Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 07/30/2022
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