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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, July 30, 2022

SPC Jul 30, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Monday from the Lower Missouri Valley into the eastern Great Lakes, and across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes region on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley, northern Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. Surface dewpoints near and ahead of the front will be generally in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability is expected across much of this moist airmass. During the day, thunderstorms are forecast to first develop along and ahead of the front from lower Michigan southwestward into parts of northern Ohio and northern Indiana. By late afternoon, isolated convective initiation is expected from the northern Ohio Valley westward into the lower Missouri Valley. Deep-layer shear near and ahead of the front is forecast to generally be in the 30 to 35 knot range. This along with steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. Hail could also occur with the stronger multicells. ...Pacific Northwest... An upper-level low is forecast to approach the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a somewhat most airmass should be in place in parts of western Oregon and western Washington. Within this airmass, a small pocket of moderate instability is expected to develop across the Willamette Valley by afternoon. NAM forecast soundings to the south of Portland for 00Z/Tuesday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This along with steep mid-level lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 07/30/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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