SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will be
possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Upper
Midwest.
...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward into the northern
Plains Tuesday, as an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Ahead of the
front, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place
from Iowa northward into eastern and central Minnesota. Strong
instability appears likely develop along this corridor by afternoon.
Due to surface heating and increasing low-level convergence,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the
front during the afternoon. Thunderstorms should increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, moving
east-southeastward across Minnesota. Forecast soundings along and
near the instability axis for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE peaking in
the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear from 40 to 50 knots.
This along with steep mid-level lapse rates should support supercell
development with a threat for isolated large hail and wind damage.
The wind-damage threat could increase during the evening especially
if a line consolidates along the front.
Further southwest, into parts of northeast Nebraska and northwest
Iowa, a severe threat will also be possible. However, deep-layer
shear is forecast to drop off quickly with southwestward extent,
suggesting any severe threat that develops will be marginal.
..Broyles.. 07/31/2022
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