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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, July 31, 2022

SPC Jul 31, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will be possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward into the northern Plains Tuesday, as an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place from Iowa northward into eastern and central Minnesota. Strong instability appears likely develop along this corridor by afternoon. Due to surface heating and increasing low-level convergence, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, moving east-southeastward across Minnesota. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE peaking in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear from 40 to 50 knots. This along with steep mid-level lapse rates should support supercell development with a threat for isolated large hail and wind damage. The wind-damage threat could increase during the evening especially if a line consolidates along the front. Further southwest, into parts of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa, a severe threat will also be possible. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to drop off quickly with southwestward extent, suggesting any severe threat that develops will be marginal. ..Broyles.. 07/31/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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