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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Friday, July 29, 2022

SPC Jul 29, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes region on Monday and into the Northeast on Tuesday. Strong thunderstorms associated with an isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon ahead of the upper-level trough. The greatest severe potential will likely be on Monday afternoon across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, where the development of moderate instability and moderate deep-layer shear will be possible. A few strong wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. In order to add a threat area for Day 4 or Day 5, model run-to-run consistency will be needed, and confidence will need to increase concerning the instability distribution. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Model solutions diverge sharply during the mid to late week time frame. The common theme among the solutions is that a moist airmass will be in place across the eastern half of the nation. A belt of stronger midlevel flow is forecast across the northern tier of the U.S. Any shortwave trough that moves eastward into the Great Lakes region or Northeast could have potential for strong thunderstorms. But at this time, the wide range of solutions suggest uncertainty is considerable from Wednesday to Friday. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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