SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND ACROSS
PARTS OF MINNESOTA...
CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong winds and hail will be possible
across parts of Minnesota on Sunday. Other storms associated with
strong winds will be possible from parts of the southern
Appalachians eastward to the North Carolina coast.
...Minnesota...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the Upper
Midwest by late afternoon on Sunday. A narrow corridor of moderate
instability will likely develop ahead of a cold front across western
Minnesota by mid to late afternoon. Convection is forecast to
initiate along the northern edge of the stronger instability in
northern Minnesota, with thunderstorms moving southeastward across
central and eastern Minnesota during the late afternoon and early
evening. Forecast soundings along the instability axis at 03Z/Monday
have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40
knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should
be sufficient for isolated supercells. Hail and strong winds would
be possible with any supercell that can develop. However, there is
conditionally to this forecast mainly due to uncertainties
concerning instability.
...Southern Virginia/North Carolina/Far Eastern Tennessee...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as mid-level flow remains from the
west-southwest across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist
airmass will be located across the Carolinas into southern Virginia,
where surface dewpoints are forecast in the lower to mid 70s F. In
response to surface heating, moderate instability is expected across
this moist airmass by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should
develop quickly across the region during the morning and expand in
coverage during the afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be
generally below 30 knots, instability may become strong enough and
low-level lapse rates may become steep enough in the early to mid
afternoon for a few strong wind gusts associated with the stronger
multicells.
..Broyles.. 07/29/2022
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