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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, July 29, 2022

SPC Jul 29, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds and hail will be possible across parts of Minnesota on Sunday. Other storms associated with strong winds will be possible from parts of the southern Appalachians eastward to the North Carolina coast. ...Minnesota... A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the Upper Midwest by late afternoon on Sunday. A narrow corridor of moderate instability will likely develop ahead of a cold front across western Minnesota by mid to late afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate along the northern edge of the stronger instability in northern Minnesota, with thunderstorms moving southeastward across central and eastern Minnesota during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings along the instability axis at 03Z/Monday have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km. This should be sufficient for isolated supercells. Hail and strong winds would be possible with any supercell that can develop. However, there is conditionally to this forecast mainly due to uncertainties concerning instability. ...Southern Virginia/North Carolina/Far Eastern Tennessee... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as mid-level flow remains from the west-southwest across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be located across the Carolinas into southern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are forecast in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate instability is expected across this moist airmass by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop quickly across the region during the morning and expand in coverage during the afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be generally below 30 knots, instability may become strong enough and low-level lapse rates may become steep enough in the early to mid afternoon for a few strong wind gusts associated with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 07/29/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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