Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The mid/upper-level trough that will persist over the north-central
and northeast CONUS for much of this week is forecast to accelerate
eastward on D4/Friday and be offshore of New England by D5/Saturday.
In its wake, a weaker trough may redevelop from the northern Plains
into the OH Valley and Northeast, as an upper ridge amplifies over
the West.
For D4/Friday, some severe threat may develop across parts of the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast in association with the departing
mid/upper trough, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude of
instability and deep-layer shear along/ahead of the cold front. Some
severe threat may also evolve across parts of the central High
Plains (and eventually into the northern Plains) from D4/Friday into
the weekend, as moist low-level flow is maintained into the region
to the west of a surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS.
None of these scenarios appear to warrant 15% severe probabilities
at this time. Predictability begins to wane by D7/Monday, though
organized severe potential appears relatively limited into early
next week.
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