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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, July 26, 2022

SPC Jul 26, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks eastward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Thursday. Locally damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat, though isolated hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist over the north-central/northeast CONUS on Thursday. In conjunction with this trough, a surface low is expected to move from near James Bay eastward into western Quebec, as an attendant cold front moves through parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and northern New England. ...Ozark Plateau into parts of the OH/TN Valleys... Another active convective day is expected near a remnant surface boundary, which is forecast to be draped from near the Ozark Plateau eastward through the OH/TN Valleys. The location and magnitude of the greatest instability remain uncertain due to the impact of antecedent convection from D1/Tuesday and D2/Wednesday, but rich low-level moisture will support moderate destabilization where any substantial diurnal heating occurs near/south of the boundary. The strongest midlevel flow will likely be displaced north of the greater instability, but modestly enhanced westerlies above the surface may support a few organized cells/clusters capable of locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some hail. ...New England... Moderate midlevel flow will overspread portions of New England on Thursday, as a shortwave embedded within the large-scale mid/upper-level trough approaches the region from the west. Deep-layer shear may become sufficient to support some storm organization, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of low-level moisture return and diurnal destabilization. No probabilities have been included for now, though some organized severe threat cannot be ruled out on Thursday if sufficient destabilization can occur. ..Dean.. 07/26/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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