SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks eastward
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Thursday. Locally damaging
wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat, though isolated
hail will also be possible.
...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist
over the north-central/northeast CONUS on Thursday. In conjunction
with this trough, a surface low is expected to move from near James
Bay eastward into western Quebec, as an attendant cold front moves
through parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and northern New England.
...Ozark Plateau into parts of the OH/TN Valleys...
Another active convective day is expected near a remnant surface
boundary, which is forecast to be draped from near the Ozark Plateau
eastward through the OH/TN Valleys. The location and magnitude of
the greatest instability remain uncertain due to the impact of
antecedent convection from D1/Tuesday and D2/Wednesday, but rich
low-level moisture will support moderate destabilization where any
substantial diurnal heating occurs near/south of the boundary. The
strongest midlevel flow will likely be displaced north of the
greater instability, but modestly enhanced westerlies above the
surface may support a few organized cells/clusters capable of
locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some hail.
...New England...
Moderate midlevel flow will overspread portions of New England on
Thursday, as a shortwave embedded within the large-scale
mid/upper-level trough approaches the region from the west.
Deep-layer shear may become sufficient to support some storm
organization, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of
low-level moisture return and diurnal destabilization. No
probabilities have been included for now, though some organized
severe threat cannot be ruled out on Thursday if sufficient
destabilization can occur.
..Dean.. 07/26/2022
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