SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEAST CO TO SOUTHERN MN...AND FROM
SOUTHERN MO EASTWARD TO PARTS OF VA/NC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
northeast Colorado to southern Minnesota later this
afternoon/evening, and isolated damaging winds will be possible this
afternoon from southern Missouri eastward to parts of Virginia and
North Carolina.
...Southern MO to VA/NC this afternoon...
A surface front will remain quasi-stationary from southern KS
eastward across southern MO into KY/WV/VA. Convection has been
focused overnight on the cool side of this boundary from MO to the
lower OH Valley, and lingering rain/clouds will tend to reinforce
the front through the day. Additional diurnal thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon along the differential
heating zone/wind shift from southern MO eastward to parts of VA/NC.
Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse
rates will favor isolated wind damage from downbursts with multicell
clusters, since the stronger midlevel flow/shear will tend to reside
to the cool side of the boundary.
...Central Plains vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward into NE and MN by
this evening, in association with embedded speed maxima rotating
around the southern periphery of a deep midlevel low over MB/western
ON. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s (to
the cool side of the stalled front in KS) and daytime heating in
cloud breaks will drive moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg)
ahead of the reinforcing cold front, along which weak ascent could
support widely scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy and largely straight
hodographs with effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt will favor a few
supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and severe
outflow gusts, though there is uncertainty regarding storm coverage.
..Thompson/Gleason.. 07/26/2022
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