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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, July 26, 2022

SPC Jul 26, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEAST CO TO SOUTHERN MN...AND FROM SOUTHERN MO EASTWARD TO PARTS OF VA/NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible from northeast Colorado to southern Minnesota later this afternoon/evening, and isolated damaging winds will be possible this afternoon from southern Missouri eastward to parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Southern MO to VA/NC this afternoon... A surface front will remain quasi-stationary from southern KS eastward across southern MO into KY/WV/VA. Convection has been focused overnight on the cool side of this boundary from MO to the lower OH Valley, and lingering rain/clouds will tend to reinforce the front through the day. Additional diurnal thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along the differential heating zone/wind shift from southern MO eastward to parts of VA/NC. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will favor isolated wind damage from downbursts with multicell clusters, since the stronger midlevel flow/shear will tend to reside to the cool side of the boundary. ...Central Plains vicinity this afternoon/evening... A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward into NE and MN by this evening, in association with embedded speed maxima rotating around the southern periphery of a deep midlevel low over MB/western ON. A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s (to the cool side of the stalled front in KS) and daytime heating in cloud breaks will drive moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) ahead of the reinforcing cold front, along which weak ascent could support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. The moderate buoyancy and largely straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt will favor a few supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and severe outflow gusts, though there is uncertainty regarding storm coverage. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 07/26/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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